A Flash Flood Warning is in effect for Brazoria, Jackson and Matagorda counties until 10:30 p.m. Roughly one to three inches of rain have already fallen and an additional two to three inches are possible within the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or will start soon.
Tropical Storm Nicholas strengthens and is now producing 70 mph sustained winds as it nears the TX coastline. The pressure has also dropped down to 988 mb. It is currently about 35 miles SSW of Matagorda. Heavy rain and strong wind gusts are impacting our coastal communities and will continue to do so into this evening and into the overnight.
Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 6-12" inches with isolated amounts close to 18" in the coastal counties.
The storm surge tide could reach 3-5 feet above ground along our coastline from Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass including Matagorda Bay. 2-4 feet of storm surge will be possible from San Luis Pass through the upper TX coastline and into southwestern Louisiana.
Hurricane force winds (over 74 mph) will be possible through Calhoun, Jackson, Brazoria, & Matagorda counties Monday night. Tropical storm winds 39 mph and greater are expected along the upper Texas coast and possibly farther north through Harris and even up into Austin and Waller counties Monday night.
Tornadoes will be possible in the outer rainbands of Nicholas through the night.
Landfall is expected to occur in the vicinity of Matagorda Bay or in Matagorda County around 10 pm Monday. The core rains of Nicholas will push east of Houston by sunrise.